One of the things that will separate an average manager from a champ is the ability to find quality players in the middle and the end of the draft. I am a firm believer that you win your league in the middle and end of your draft. In the same sense, I believe that this also where you lose your league. Most managers focus on what players they are going to draft in the first few rounds. Everyone should end up with studs in the first few rounds unless you are completely clueless. Don't get me wrong I'm not saying that you don't need to do your homework on the top 24. I am just saying that you should focus on the middle and late rounds just as much as the beginning rounds.
Most owners go to a draft prepared with a strategy and by the 5th round it is out the window and they are drafting on the fly. This isn’t always a bad thing, but for some owners it is. You can abandon your draft strategy in the middle of the draft also. The difference will be if you did your homework you will still be able to get quality picks in the middle and at the end of the draft.
If you are doing a draft on CBSsportsline or yahoo they will have pre-rankings in their draft rooms. Most owners don’t take the time to adjust them or put in their own information. If you are paying attention to the other owners in the draft you can get a feel for how they are drafting. You may notice that they are just taking the next guy in the rankings. Use this to your advantage. Compare your rankings to the pre rankings and try to judge where the players you are targeting are going to be selected. That way you should be able to judge whether you can wait for your player or if you have to take him with your next pick. You should also pay attention to the other team’s rosters and needs. For example if you are targeting a 2nd baseman and 7 other teams need a second baseman you may need to adjust your rankings to accommodate this. But, if you did your homework and know that the next 8 2nd baseman are very close in numbers you can wait and try to pick up another player in a different position that will have better numbers. This is what is known as a value pick. You end up getting a stud in another position while the other owners are scrambling to get players that are going to put up the same numbers as the guy you draft a few rounds later. The only way you could know this is if you did your homework.
Remember if you have a sleeper in mind chances are another owner has him in mind also. Any website you go to have some sleepers listed on it. Some names pop up on more than one site or magazine. More than likely if you are sold on a player you may have to reach for him a lit bit earlier than you would have normally drafted him. Keep an eye on where the player is being drafted in mock drafts and real drafts. This will give you an idea of where you should be able to draft your player. Try to read up as much as you can about those players and follow what they are doing in spring training. Make sure that you look at the players career stats, and the reasons sites or magazines think they are going to have better stats than they are projected. It’s nice when a sleeper works out for you, but it’s not fun if you didn’t get it right. Keep an eye on players coming off of injuries because this is one of the best place to find a sleeper.
The Bottom line is if you want to win you have to do your homework. Use projections and your scoring system to make your own rankings. Most of all practice practice and practice. Go to mockdraftcentral.com or sportingnews.com and do mock drafts until your fingers fall off and then use the nubs. There’s no substitution for preparation and practice. Good luck. If you have any questions contact me at the_guru@comcast.net. If like what you see check out my site at: www.1fantasyguru.com
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Friday, February 29, 2008
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
Changing his ways
Changing his ways.
In every sport there are athletes that do stupid things that make you scratch your head. Some of the stupid things that they do are giving fans the finger, making unnecessary comments to reporters, spitting on fans and attacking officials or umpires verbally and physically. Most people can’t understand why million dollar athletes can’t control their tempers. Every professional athlete is competitive or they wouldn’t have made it to the professional level. Some athletes are so competitive that they can’t control their emotions. Take away the money and fame and professional athletes are normal people like you and me. It is easy to get angry at almost anything. What is important is how you deal with your anger.
So why is this important to fantasy baseball? Most fantasy players tend to shy away from these high risk types of athletes. If you are smart you may be able to capitalize on this. A prime example of this would be Randy Moss. Before the football season the talk was that Randy Moss would destroy the New England Patriots. Randy didn’t destroy the Patriot’s he destroyed the rest of the League. I took a chance on Randy and he repaid me with great numbers. His talent was never questioned; it was his character and his ability to control his attitude that was questioned. There comes a point in an athlete’s career when they grow up and put the team in front of their selves.
I think this may be the year that Milton Bradley gets it. He has moved to a new team and a new ballpark. The ballpark in Texas should beneficial to Bradley’s numbers. I think that he realizes that San Diego may have had a chance to do well in the playoffs if he didn’t get injured. He had to sit on the thought of his bad judgment for the entire off season. Bradley knows that his actions had a direct impact on the Padres demise. I think this is going to fuel him to prove that he good ball player not a bad decision maker. I believe this year he is out to prove himself. He has the potential to be in the top 25 outfielders if he learns to control his anger issues. It may be a good idea to draft him at the end of the draft and put him on the bench and see what he does.
In every sport there are athletes that do stupid things that make you scratch your head. Some of the stupid things that they do are giving fans the finger, making unnecessary comments to reporters, spitting on fans and attacking officials or umpires verbally and physically. Most people can’t understand why million dollar athletes can’t control their tempers. Every professional athlete is competitive or they wouldn’t have made it to the professional level. Some athletes are so competitive that they can’t control their emotions. Take away the money and fame and professional athletes are normal people like you and me. It is easy to get angry at almost anything. What is important is how you deal with your anger.
So why is this important to fantasy baseball? Most fantasy players tend to shy away from these high risk types of athletes. If you are smart you may be able to capitalize on this. A prime example of this would be Randy Moss. Before the football season the talk was that Randy Moss would destroy the New England Patriots. Randy didn’t destroy the Patriot’s he destroyed the rest of the League. I took a chance on Randy and he repaid me with great numbers. His talent was never questioned; it was his character and his ability to control his attitude that was questioned. There comes a point in an athlete’s career when they grow up and put the team in front of their selves.
I think this may be the year that Milton Bradley gets it. He has moved to a new team and a new ballpark. The ballpark in Texas should beneficial to Bradley’s numbers. I think that he realizes that San Diego may have had a chance to do well in the playoffs if he didn’t get injured. He had to sit on the thought of his bad judgment for the entire off season. Bradley knows that his actions had a direct impact on the Padres demise. I think this is going to fuel him to prove that he good ball player not a bad decision maker. I believe this year he is out to prove himself. He has the potential to be in the top 25 outfielders if he learns to control his anger issues. It may be a good idea to draft him at the end of the draft and put him on the bench and see what he does.
Sunday, February 24, 2008
Who should I keep?
This is a big question you may have if you are in a keeper league. Obviously you can put up an argument for almost any player except for A-rod. If you can put up a reason on why not to keep A-rod you might want to find a new hobby. A-Rod aside, you can probably put up an argument for keeping or not keeping any other player. There are many things to consider when making your choice such as: would I draft this player with my first pick. Is there any player on my team that would be drafted in the first round? Also what is your keeper policy? Are you only able to keep a player for 1 year? If this is the case and you know your draft order is use it to your advantage. For example if you have the first pick and you have A-Rod keep your 2nd best player and draft A-Rod with the first pick. Now you will be able to have A-Rod for two more years.
Your keeper is considered your first pick. In some leagues you don't have to keep someone and you will pick in your spot. This may be a better option if you don't think any of your players are first round picks. Do you have a young hot shot that is being projected to light up the world? I prefer to go with the proven guys. Don't get me wrong I don't mind taking a chance on a young buck, but I would never take that chance for a keeper. Keep in mind projections are made up or are considered educated guesses. You can't argue with player’s stats from the year before. Baseball players are very consistent. So it is a good idea to look back at the last few years and see what there stats look like. It may be a good indication on what kind of numbers you can expect from that player. Another thing to consider is injuries. Does the player get hurt a lot? Does he miss a lot of games? What about his age? As players get older you expect a natural decline in numbers. A good example of this is David Ortiz. He really hasn't shown significant signs of decline. Is he going to be the type of player that completely dissolves in one season?
The best thing to do is look at the top 4 batters on your team and the top 4 pitchers. Use your point system and projections from a few different sites and figure out how many points they are expected to put up this year. You should look at the average draft position for the players that you are considering to keep. Keep in mind that when you go to a site like www.mockdraftcentral.com the majority of the drafts are roto based. It is always a good idea to do a few mock drafts so that you get a feel for where players are going. Just make sure you join a mock draft that reflects your type (head to head, roto) and your player requirements and scoring. You can also check out www.sportingnews.com to do some mock drafts.
Something else to keep in mind is your point system. If your league gives points for innings pitched then most of your pitchers have gained 150-220 points. This may give an edge to pitchers. This is also big in head to head weekly scoring leagues. The reason I say this is because if a pitcher goes out and gets 2 wins in a week with 10 K's and 14 innings pitched he just scored=54 points. A-Rod would have to hit 7 home runs or 26 doubles or 54 hits to compare. So your point system should also play a factor in who you decide to keep. Also, you have to feel confident about the player. It is hard to watch a player falling short of his expectations when you didn’t feel confident in keeping him in the first place.
If you don't figure out another option like a trade, or if your league allows it don't keep a player and you will have your pick in the first round when everyone else has selected their keeper as their first pick. You can recover from a bad keeper by getting valuable guys in the late rounds. Do your homework and be prepared and it won’t be an issue. If you have any questions feel free to email me at the_guru@comcast.net.
Your keeper is considered your first pick. In some leagues you don't have to keep someone and you will pick in your spot. This may be a better option if you don't think any of your players are first round picks. Do you have a young hot shot that is being projected to light up the world? I prefer to go with the proven guys. Don't get me wrong I don't mind taking a chance on a young buck, but I would never take that chance for a keeper. Keep in mind projections are made up or are considered educated guesses. You can't argue with player’s stats from the year before. Baseball players are very consistent. So it is a good idea to look back at the last few years and see what there stats look like. It may be a good indication on what kind of numbers you can expect from that player. Another thing to consider is injuries. Does the player get hurt a lot? Does he miss a lot of games? What about his age? As players get older you expect a natural decline in numbers. A good example of this is David Ortiz. He really hasn't shown significant signs of decline. Is he going to be the type of player that completely dissolves in one season?
The best thing to do is look at the top 4 batters on your team and the top 4 pitchers. Use your point system and projections from a few different sites and figure out how many points they are expected to put up this year. You should look at the average draft position for the players that you are considering to keep. Keep in mind that when you go to a site like www.mockdraftcentral.com the majority of the drafts are roto based. It is always a good idea to do a few mock drafts so that you get a feel for where players are going. Just make sure you join a mock draft that reflects your type (head to head, roto) and your player requirements and scoring. You can also check out www.sportingnews.com to do some mock drafts.
Something else to keep in mind is your point system. If your league gives points for innings pitched then most of your pitchers have gained 150-220 points. This may give an edge to pitchers. This is also big in head to head weekly scoring leagues. The reason I say this is because if a pitcher goes out and gets 2 wins in a week with 10 K's and 14 innings pitched he just scored=54 points. A-Rod would have to hit 7 home runs or 26 doubles or 54 hits to compare. So your point system should also play a factor in who you decide to keep. Also, you have to feel confident about the player. It is hard to watch a player falling short of his expectations when you didn’t feel confident in keeping him in the first place.
If you don't figure out another option like a trade, or if your league allows it don't keep a player and you will have your pick in the first round when everyone else has selected their keeper as their first pick. You can recover from a bad keeper by getting valuable guys in the late rounds. Do your homework and be prepared and it won’t be an issue. If you have any questions feel free to email me at the_guru@comcast.net.
Monday, February 18, 2008
Tips for getting ready for your draft
Here are some important things that you need to know before your draft.
*Do your home work. There are plenty of sites with info that you need.
Here is some of the info you need to get:
•Player movment (does the feild favor hitting/pitching style) where is he going to hit in his new line-up. Will he have a better chance at RBI's. Does his new team like to run? Or play small ball where he will be expected to give up hits to move runners.
•Players age. Is he 27? Or may be 37?
•Who are injury risks? Who is coming off of injury? Who is injured? You should print up an injury repot the day of your draft. Don't make a mistake drafting some one who is injured.
•What players are expected to explode or be busts?
•What stats are they expected to put up
•What are there three year averages? Are they close to the projections.
•What is your scoring system
•Rank your player to reflect your point system
•Understand your draft spot. Are you the fourth pick and your not shure who you want? Would you be better of trading the pick and getting the 12 pick and get 2 studs that fit your style.
•Know the guys you are drafting against and use their tendencies to help you.
•Break down your cheat sheets so that they are buy position. Break each position down by groups by value. This will help you with your drafting. Use this and position scarcity to evaluate your pick.
•I am always infavor of best available player
•Position availability. Know your leagues rules and figure out what players are available to play more than one position.
•Try do do some mock drafts to get a feel what is going on.
*Do your home work. There are plenty of sites with info that you need.
Here is some of the info you need to get:
•Player movment (does the feild favor hitting/pitching style) where is he going to hit in his new line-up. Will he have a better chance at RBI's. Does his new team like to run? Or play small ball where he will be expected to give up hits to move runners.
•Players age. Is he 27? Or may be 37?
•Who are injury risks? Who is coming off of injury? Who is injured? You should print up an injury repot the day of your draft. Don't make a mistake drafting some one who is injured.
•What players are expected to explode or be busts?
•What stats are they expected to put up
•What are there three year averages? Are they close to the projections.
•What is your scoring system
•Rank your player to reflect your point system
•Understand your draft spot. Are you the fourth pick and your not shure who you want? Would you be better of trading the pick and getting the 12 pick and get 2 studs that fit your style.
•Know the guys you are drafting against and use their tendencies to help you.
•Break down your cheat sheets so that they are buy position. Break each position down by groups by value. This will help you with your drafting. Use this and position scarcity to evaluate your pick.
•I am always infavor of best available player
•Position availability. Know your leagues rules and figure out what players are available to play more than one position.
•Try do do some mock drafts to get a feel what is going on.
Sunday, February 17, 2008
1fantasyguru
Hello, and welcome to the home of the #1 fantasy Guru. I plan on using this site as an informative tool for anyone interested in fantasy sports. I will do my best to keep it up to date and will provide any information that is requested. I am also going to use this site to inform everyone about what is going on in my fantasy leagues. I am NOT a journalist nor am I a sports report, but I will attempt to give you my perspective on sports and fantasy issues. My rankings will be based on my expectations and using my point system. If you look around at different sites you will see most sites rankings are pretty similar, but my rankings will be based on my leagues scoring. Last but not least, I want to thank Bill McLaughlin for getting me involved in fantasy sports back in the day when. Bill you were a good friend to me RIP. You were the original GURU that would sit at our drafts without a book and draft playoff teams. Long Live The MEATBOX!
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